1983 to 1992 Bradley effect

other elections have been cited possible demonstrations of bradley effect include 1983 race mayor of chicago, 1988 democratic primary race in wisconsin president of united states, , 1989 race mayor of new york city.

the 1983 race in chicago featured black candidate, harold washington, running against white candidate, bernard epton. more california governor s race year before, washington-epton matchup evinced strong , overt racial overtones throughout campaign. 2 polls conducted approximately 2 weeks before election showed washington 14-point lead in race. third conducted 3 days before election confirmed washington continuing hold lead of 14 points. in election s final results, washington won less 4 points.

in 1988 democratic presidential primary in wisconsin, pre-election polls pegged black candidate jesse jackson—at time, legitimate challenger white candidate , frontrunner michael dukakis—as receive approximately one-third of white vote. ultimately, however, jackson carried 1 quarter of vote, discrepancy in heavily white state contributing large margin of victory dukakis on second-place jackson.

in 1989 race mayor of new york, poll conducted on week before election showed black candidate david dinkins holding 18-point lead on white candidate rudy giuliani. 4 days before election, new poll showed lead have shrunk, still standing @ 14 points. on day of election, dinkins prevailed 2 points.

l. douglas wilder s margin of victory in 1989 virginia gubernatorial election narrower predicted pre-election , exit polls.

similar voter behavior noted in 1989 race governor of virginia between democrat l. douglas wilder, african-american, , republican marshall coleman, white. in race, wilder prevailed, less half of 1 percent, when pre-election poll numbers showed him on average 9 percent lead. discrepancy attributed white voters telling pollsters undecided when voted marshall coleman.

after 1989 virginia gubernatorial election, bradley effect called wilder effect. both terms still used; , less commonly, term dinkins effect used.

also mentioned are:

the 1987 mayoral race in philadelphia between white former mayor frank rizzo , black incumbent wilson goode. goode prevailed narrow margin, despite having had larger lead in pre-election polls.
the 1990 senate race in north carolina between black candidate harvey gantt , white candidate jesse helms. gantt lost race 6 points. 2 late polls showed gantt ahead 4 6 points, 1 other showed four-point helms victory.


the 1991 race mayor of city of houston between texas state representative sylvester turner , bob lanier.
the 1992 senate race in illinois between black candidate carol moseley braun , white candidate richard williamson. braun won general election race 10 points, polls indicated margin of 20 points. however, polls had been erroneous, though time underestimating braun s support, during primary election. braun won contest—also against white candidate—by 3 points after polls predicted lose double digits.
during 1990s electoral contests former ku klux klan leader , nazi sympathizer david duke, many potential voters not tell pollsters favored duke (as feared ostracization result being on record being duke supporter), go on vote him anyway. commentary @ time duke flies under radar.




^ keeler, scott , nilanthi samaranayake. (february 7, 2007). can trust polls obama s electoral prospects? , pew research center people & press
^ polman, dick. (january 21, 2007). barack obama s race seems second-tier issue , philadelphia inquirer, american debate

1 can argue, however, wind @ obama s might not strong seems. despite fact americans seem downright bullish backing qualified black presidential candidate – in december newsweek poll, 93 percent said vote such person – there nagging possibility lot of people don t mean it, merely want sound pc when pollster calls.

there s name kind of behavior. actually, several names. bradley effect named black democrat tom bradley, ran governor of california in 1982 after serving mayor of los angeles. whites told pollsters pro-bradley, on election day voted white republican, costing bradley race. there wilder effect, named black virginia democrat doug wilder. while running governor in 1989, thought ahead 10 percentage points, buoyed big white vote. in end, won in squeaker because white voters bailed out.

jesse jackson had similar experience in 1988. presidential candidate, supposedly cruising toward primary season win in heavily white wisconsin. white democratic voters had told pollsters, , did, turned out different, , jackson beaten. colin powell well-aware of syndrome when weighing candidacy in 1995; friend reportedly warned him, when go in booth, ain t going vote you.

some analysts have assumed same syndrome helped doom harold ford jr., black democrat lost senate race in tennessee in november 3 percentage points; indeed, apparently hurt gop tv ad implied partied white girls. facts, however, suggest otherwise. projected share of white vote, measured pre-election polls, closely tracked share on election day.
^ derbyshire, john. (may 15, 2007). none of above archived may 17, 2007, @ wayback machine. , national review online

when david dinkins, african-american, ran mayor of new york city, won. didn t win margin pollsters predicting, though, , dinkins s win left pollsters scratching heads. had missing dinkins voters gone? common conclusion of pollsters race such charged issue in u.s.a. people lie intentions vote black candidate way voting booth.
^ citrin, jack , donald philip green , david o. sears. (spring, 1990). white reactions black candidates: when race matter? , public opinion quarterly, vol. 54, no. 1, pp. 74–96
^ isaacson, walter. (april 11, 1983). making of litmus test , time
^ carr, camilla. (april 12, 1983). washington-epton race ugly , wbbm-tv
^ peterson, bill. (april 4, 1988). jackson, potential breakthrough; on eve of primary, support white officials , wisconsin voters appears strong , washington post
^ dionne, e. j. jr. (april 6, 1988). dukakis defeats jackson handily in wisconsin vote , new york times
^ shapiro, walter. (november 20, 1989). breakthrough in virginia , time

published pre-election surveys had shown wilder leading republican rival j. marshall coleman margins of 4% 15%. initial television exit poll had anointed wilder 10 percentage-point triumph. time wilder felt comfortable enough declare victory, razor-thin lead had stabilized end up: 6,582 votes out of record 1.78 million ballots cast.
^ black, chris. (november 9, 1989). pollsters voters lie , boston globe
^ bacon, perry jr. (january 23, 2007). can obama count on black vote? , time

more politicians, wilder knows how difficult can black candidate; during gubernatorial campaign, gap between numbers in final polls , in actual election showed such dramatic drop-off became known wilder effect.
^ cite error: named reference elder invoked never defined (see page).
^ smerconish, michael. (october 23, 2008). decoding lawn signs , philadelphia daily news

conventional wisdom people lie pollsters in elections featuring candidates of different races. s bradley effect, named tom bradley, l.a. mayor once believed shoo-in california governor. polls got 1 wrong. in black-white race, theory says, black candidate polls better ll on election day.

i saw firsthand in 87, when wilson goode sr. forecast beat frank rizzo double digits won 2 percent. post-election explanation? white liberals didn t want tell pollster voting rizzo.
^ kurtz, howard. (1987, november 4). goode holds slim majority; challenger rizzo refuses concede , washington post, page a25
^ west, paul. (october 6, 2006). ford plays against type in bid senate upset , baltimore sun

independent statewide poll mason-dixon, released week, has ford ahead 1 percentage point. public opinion surveys notoriously unreliable when 1 of candidates black. campaign strategists subtract racial slippage factor, account surveys might exaggerate black candidate s strength 9 percentage points.

in north carolina, mason-dixon poll week before 1990 election gave black democrat harvey gantt 4-point lead on republican sen. jesse helms; gantt lost 6 percentage points.

in 1989 virginia governor s race, l. douglas wilder, black democrat, had 11-point poll advantage week before election; won less 1 point.

citing wilder effect, vanderbilt university political scientist christian grose wonders whether many tennesseans re undecided – 1 in 7 voters – might unwilling tell pollsters won t black candidate.